Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26?

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Market context

The underlying event is the measurement of the peak air temperature at Wellington International Airport on 26 June 2026, resolved via Wunderground data in degrees Celsius. Historical patterns for mid-winter in Wellington show daily highs consistently clustering between 11°C and 14°C, with 12°C and 13°C being the most frequent outcomes [9]. Average June highs at this station decrease to roughly 54°F (12.2°C), rarely exceeding 62°F (16.7°C) or falling below 50°F (10°C) [1]. This stable climatic baseline explains the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any temperature range significantly above these norms, as extreme heat events in June are meteorologically anomalous for this region [1].

Traders should monitor real-time weather schedules and any sudden shifts in wind direction or pressure systems, as the station currently experiences strong south-south-westerly winds at 24 mph with light rain [2]. While no specific forecast announcement for 26 June has been released yet, the constant wind speed of approximately 13.9 mph typically acts as a stabilising factor against rapid temperature spikes [1]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 June 2026, making the final Wunderground reading the sole determinant for resolution [3].

From a regulatory perspective, this market operates under the German Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (GlüStV) framework and faces US CFTC reach, yet remains accessible to users without KYC verification for stakes up to $1,500. This "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold allows casual participants to engage with weather-based predictions without submitting personal identification, provided the transaction stays within the specified limit. Such accessibility is distinct in the current landscape, where many platforms mandate strict identity checks for all trades regardless of size.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.