Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Historical data shows Seoul’s June highs typically range between 25°C and 31°C, rarely exceeding 33°C, with 2025 seeing record-breaking averages across southern cities including Mokpo and Busan[1]. Incheon, slightly cooler than central Seoul due to coastal influence, has not recorded June highs above 34°C in recent decades, making a 0% crowd-implied probability for extreme ranges consistent with past patterns[2][3].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave advisories and any sudden shifts in monsoon timing, which can suppress temperatures unexpectedly. Recent reports confirm South Korea experienced its highest average summer temperature since records began, with 59 stations hitting record June averages in 2025[6][7]. While 2026 forecasts suggest highs up to 33°C[5], the absence of extreme heat signals in early June reduces likelihood of outlier events. Regulatory accessibility hinges on German GlüStV compliance, US CFTC reach, and the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold, which allows retail traders to participate without identity verification under current exemptions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.