Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as highly conservative; Hong Kong routinely experiences June highs between 30°C and 35°C, with the year’s hottest day so far reaching 34.6°C just days prior[9]. Seasonal forecasts for June through August 2026 explicitly predict above-normal temperatures due to current ENSO conditions, suggesting the likelihood of a record-breaking heat event is non-trivial[1][6].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract releases, which finalise the Absolute Daily Max data, and watch for official heatwave warnings that may accompany sustained temperatures above 33°C[6]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 26 June, creating a tight dependency on the timely publication of the Daily Extract[5]. Regulatory accessibility is shaped by German GlüStV implications for EU traders and US CFTC reach for American participants; the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows retail access without identity verification, provided the market remains classified as a non-security prediction instrument under current frameworks. This specific market’s liquidity and resolution depend entirely on the Observatory’s finalized data, not on speculative forecasts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.