Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 26 June 2026, with historical data showing June highs typically ranging from 26°C to 35°C and occasional spikes reaching 43°C[3][7][8]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on, likely due to the forecast of partly cloudy conditions with local thunderstorms and showers expected on that date, which usually suppress peak temperatures[1].

Historical precedents from similar markets, such as the June 22 Chongqing temperature event, demonstrate how weather volatility can rapidly shift probabilities when unexpected cloud cover or precipitation intervenes[6]. Comparable climate patterns confirm that while Chongqing’s hot season begins mid-June with average highs above 30°C, the presence of thunderstorms on 26 June aligns with the 72°F (22°C) forecasted high, making extreme heat less probable than in clear-sky scenarios[1][3].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground hourly updates for the ZUCK station and any sudden changes in the National Weather Service precipitation charts, as even brief rainfall can cap the maximum temperature[2]. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather indicate June 2026 highs between 24°C and 35°C, but the specific 26 June outlook of local thunderstorms is the primary catalyst that could invalidate a high-temperature bet[4]. Regarding accessibility, German GlüStV regulations and US CFTC reach mean that while "no-KYC up to $1,500" simplifies entry for small traders, larger positions may trigger compliance checks depending on jurisdictional enforcement of these frameworks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.