US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is a potential US military operation to seize Iran’s 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, a move reportedly under consideration by President Trump despite Iran’s Supreme Leader forbidding any export of the material[1][2]. This market’s 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the extreme logistical and diplomatic hurdles: experts note such an operation would require ground forces, heavy machinery to clear underground tunnels, and likely face counterattacks, while Iran has explicitly ordered the uranium to remain within its borders[1][2].

Historically, comparable cases like the 2018 Israeli uncovering of Iran’s nuclear documents or the 2025 damage to Iran’s enrichment facilities during the 12-Day War show that physical control of nuclear material is rarely achieved without direct conflict or regime collapse[1][7]. The current deadlock in negotiations, with Iran insisting uranium transfers only to third parties and the US demanding full surrender, further frames why physical possession by the US remains improbable before May 2026[2].

Traders should monitor announcements from the White House regarding definitive conclusions on extraction plans, schedules for US 82nd Airborne deployments to the Middle East, and any shifts in Iran’s stance on uranium export[1]. Recent reporting from Reuters confirms Khamenei’s directive forbidding uranium removal, while the Wall Street Journal notes Trump has yet to reach a final decision on extraction[1][2]. Accessibility for this market hinges on regulatory frameworks: German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach mean “no-KYC up to $1,500” allows limited participation without identity verification, though full compliance may still be required for larger trades.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.