World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is currently in its knockout phase, where the real-world event driving this market hinges on the total count of penalty kicks missed or saved during regular, stoppage, or extra time. Unlike penalty shootouts, which are excluded, only penalties taken within match time count; a miss occurs if the ball does not result in a goal. With the tournament nearing its climax, the crowd-implied 2% probability for "Yes" suggests traders believe the threshold for missed penalties is unlikely to be reached, despite the high stakes of knockout football.

Historically, World Cup penalty misses are rare but decisive, with the 1994 final’s Roberto Baggio miss standing as the most infamous example[4][6]. Since 1982, only one penalty has been missed from 18 kicks in World Cup matches excluding shootouts, indicating a strong conversion rate[1]. The 2026 tournament has already seen its first official penalty scored by Switzerland’s Breel Embolo, and early data shows Germany recording three missed penalties, hinting at variability but not yet a surge[3][9]. These comparable cases frame the current low probability as grounded in historical efficiency rather than mere speculation.

Traders should monitor upcoming knockout fixtures, particularly matches involving teams with high foul rates or those reliant on individual attackers, as these are catalysts for penalty calls. Recent reports confirm Lionel Messi missed a penalty against Austria in the 2026 tournament, a notable miss that could influence future expectations[5]. Additionally, FIFA’s introduction of penalty shootouts in the group stage may alter defensive aggression, indirectly affecting penalty frequency[1]. As the settlement window closes on 20 July 2026, attention must focus on official match reports for any missed or saved penalties before the tournament concludes.

From a regulatory standpoint, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define the legal boundaries for this market, while the "no-KYC up to $1,500" provision enhances accessibility for retail participants without identity verification. This specific market remains accessible under current frameworks, provided traders adhere to jurisdictional limits. Facts, not legal advice, underscore that the market operates within established compliance structures, ensuring transparency for all participants.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

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