Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the daily peak heat expected at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data confirms that June highs at this station typically range between 25°C and 30°C, rarely dipping below 21°C or exceeding 33°C[1][8]. A recent Polymarket resolution for a similar Shanghai temperature event on 24 June also settled "No" for the lowest range, reinforcing that sub-21°C outcomes are statistically negligible in this season[2]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for the "YES" outcome aligns with these comparable cases, as the market correctly identifies that temperatures below the threshold are virtually impossible during Shanghai's humid, hot rainy season.

Traders should monitor the immediate weather forecast updates from AccuWeather, which project daily highs between 26°C and 30°C for late June 2026[4]. While no specific regulatory announcements are pending for this date, the market's accessibility is shaped by broader compliance frameworks: German GlüStV regulations may restrict access for users in Germany, while US CFTC reach could limit participation for American residents without proper registration. However, the "no-KYC up to $1,500" provision allows traders to access this specific market without identity verification if their stake remains under that limit, provided they are not in a jurisdiction with mandatory registration. This accessibility feature makes the market viable for a wider global audience despite the regulatory friction points.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 27 June 2026, with Wunderground serving as the definitive resolution source for the highest recorded temperature[6]. Given the consistent historical trend of June highs exceeding 25°C, the probability of the temperature falling into the lowest range remains effectively zero. Market participants should focus on the Wunderground data feed rather than speculative news, as the resolution depends entirely on the recorded meteorological data for that specific day. The structural integrity of the market relies on this transparent data source, ensuring that the outcome reflects the actual weather conditions rather than external manipulation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.