Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for Seoul in June shows typical daytime highs between 19°C and 28°C, with the average warmest day reaching approximately 28°C [1][5]. The highest maximum temperature recorded in Seoul during June 2026 so far was 34.0°C on 19 June, suggesting that extreme heat is possible but not the norm for this period [10]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a specific high-temperature range is 0% YES, traders should interpret this as the market viewing the target range as statistically unlikely compared to the historical average of 28°C, which aligns with early summer conditions before the intense midsummer heat [1][2].

Traders must monitor the onset of South Korea’s monsoon season, which typically spans late June to mid-July and often brings increased humidity and rainfall that can suppress peak temperatures [1][2]. The key catalyst is the daily weather forecast from the Korea Meteorological Administration, particularly any announcements regarding heatwaves or heavy rain systems approaching the Incheon region [4]. Recent climate reports indicate that while June is warm, it rarely experiences the extreme heat of July, where average highs can reach 33°C [6]. Accessibility for this market is influenced by regulatory frameworks: German GlüStV implications may restrict participation for German residents, while US CFTC reach could affect US traders, though the 'no-KYC up to $1,500' threshold allows smaller accounts to bypass identity verification, making this market accessible to those under the limit without full regulatory scrutiny [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.