Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco's highest temperature on 13 August 2026 will be recorded at the airport weather station and measured against historical August patterns for the Bay Area. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside the upper range options available, though August typically sees highs between 65–75°F at SFO, with occasional peaks near 80°F during heat events. The market's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than the Day High & Low summary—creates a technical resolution dependency that mirrors how official meteorological records are often adjudicated in regulatory contexts.

Historical August temperatures at SFO show that extreme heat events exceeding 85°F occur roughly once per decade, making higher-range outcomes statistically rare but not unprecedented. The 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome and the 2022 California heat waves demonstrated how quickly Bay Area forecasts can shift, though coastal San Francisco remains buffered by marine layer effects that inland regions lack. Traders should monitor National Weather Service advisories and NOAA seasonal outlooks released in late July 2026, as these typically signal whether atmospheric conditions favour anomalous warming.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets require licensing; US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives contracts but excludes certain binary event contracts under the Dodd-Frank exemptions. Platforms offering no-KYC trading up to $1,500 per user typically operate under these exemptions, meaning this specific weather market may be accessible without identity verification in qualifying jurisdictions, though settlement and withdrawal procedures remain subject to local financial regulations.

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 13? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legit has a different geo footprint.

Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legit?

Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.

How are winnings taxed?

Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.

Are prediction markets gambling?

Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).