Highest temperature in Paris on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. This specific reading will determine the market outcome, with the current crowd-implied probability of a "YES" result sitting at 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the defined range.

Historical context frames this near-zero probability against the backdrop of an unprecedented June heat dome currently engulfing France. Just days prior, on 23 June, France recorded its hottest day since 1947, with temperatures exceeding 43°C in some areas and Paris breaking its own June record at 38.4°C[7][9]. While other prediction markets for the same date show a 68% chance of 36°C and a 30% chance of 37°C[1], the current 0% "YES" probability implies the specific range in question is likely set significantly higher than these prevailing forecasts, perhaps targeting the 40°C+ extremes seen in the recent heatwave alert where temperatures soared to 44°C[3].

Traders must monitor the final 24-hour forecast updates and any official meteorological announcements regarding the persistence of the heat dome, as dependencies on cloud cover and wind shifts could alter the peak temperature. Recent reports from Euronews indicate that Paris could top 40°C mid-week, with the heatwave already killing 18 people across France[9]. From a regulatory perspective, the market's accessibility is influenced by German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach; notably, the "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold allows immediate participation for smaller bets without identity verification, though larger positions will trigger standard compliance checks under these frameworks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.