Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak Fahrenheit reading at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, sourced from Wunderground’s daily history for KLGA. Historical June highs at this station typically range from 77°F to 92°F, with the 1991–2020 normal average near 83.7°F and the all-time record at 101°F[6][5]. Given that current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a “YES” outcome, traders should interpret this as the market expecting temperatures to fall below the lowest resolution threshold—likely under 79°F—despite June’s usual warmth[1]. Such a divergence often mirrors past anomalies where unseasonal cool fronts suppressed highs, as seen in similar Robinhood and Kalshi climate markets where early-season lows triggered outsized payouts[3].

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports issued by LGA, which validate temperature extremes and confirm data integrity for settlement[2]. A key catalyst is the upcoming release of the June 2026 monthly summary from AccuWeather, which forecasts daily highs between 77°F and 92°F and could shift probability if early readings trend cooler[6]. Additionally, regulatory developments matter: German GlüStV implications may restrict access for EU users, while US CFTC reach ensures compliance for domestic traders[3]. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” clause enhances accessibility for this market, allowing small-position traders to participate without identity verification—a critical feature for liquidity in weather-linked prediction markets[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.