Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the Hong Kong Observatory’s recorded peak temperature on 25 June 2026, a single daily maximum that will determine the market’s resolution. Historical June data shows Hong Kong routinely hits 29–34°C, with 2026 forecasts indicating above-normal temperatures and daily highs between 30°C and 34°C[1][2][6]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome likely reflects a mismatch between the specific temperature range offered and the high likelihood of temperatures exceeding it, as past June peaks have consistently landed in the 30–34°C band, making lower ranges improbable[2][8][9].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s finalised “Daily Extract” for 25 June, which will publish the official “Absolute Daily Max” once data is locked[1]. Key catalysts include the release of the monthly weather summary for June 2026 and any updates on ENSO status, which the Observatory cites as a driver for the above-normal temperature forecast[1][4]. Recent seasonal forecasts confirm June 2026 will be hotter than average, with minimal rainfall, reinforcing the expectation of high peak temperatures[1][5].

From a regulatory standpoint, German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks increasingly scrutinise prediction markets, but the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows accessible participation for retail traders without identity verification, provided the market remains under the threshold for mandatory registration[1]. This accessibility is critical for this specific market, as it enables broader liquidity without triggering complex compliance obligations, while still adhering to the underlying legal requirements for market operators.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.