Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport maximum on 3 August will be judged against the hottest reading recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, and the historical backdrop points to a warm, humid mid-summer regime rather than an exceptional outlier. August averages in Chengdu are typically around 24–34°C, with several weather guides putting daytime highs near 30–32°C and noting that occasional peaks can exceed 35°C in the wider area.[1][4][13][15][16] With the market currently pricing **0% YES**, the crowd is effectively treating the outcome as outside the relevant range, but the climate baseline does not support reading that as evidence of an unusually cool day; it more likely reflects thin participation or a mismatch between the market’s range and the expected airport maximum.[1][9][13]

Comparable August forecasts for Chengdu often sit in the low-to-mid 30s, including 33°C on 3 August from multiple forecast sites, while a live Met Office forecast for the city shows daytime maxima around 35°C, underscoring the heat risk if sunny conditions hold into the afternoon.[3][5][14] For traders, the key catalyst is the actual airport observation path on the settlement day: cloud cover, showers, and timing of any late-afternoon heating can materially shift the daily high before the 12:00 UTC window closes, even when the broader month is seasonably hot.[4][13][14] On the legal and access side, German GlüStV rules can materially limit or prohibit participation from Germany depending on the operator’s licensing and compliance setup, while U.S. CFTC reach matters because a market exposed to U.S. persons can still attract regulatory scrutiny if it is treated as an event contract or derivatives-like product. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means access is available with limited identity checks only until a cumulative threshold, after which additional verification is typically required; for a weather market like this, that affects friction and account limits more than the underlying settlement mechanics.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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Are prediction markets gambling?

Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

What if regulation changes?

If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legit would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.