Highest temperature in Busan on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key event is whether Gimhae International Airport reaches a given **daily high temperature** on 1 August, with settlement based on the highest reading recorded that day at the station in Busan. August is normally the city’s hottest month, with typical highs around 31–32°C and very humid coastal conditions, so the market is ultimately a question of whether the day’s maximum lands in an upper summer band rather than an extreme-heat outlier.[4][5][14][19]

For context, Busan has seen occasional spikes well above seasonal norms, including a 38.8°C reading reported in late July 2026, which underlines that the top end of the distribution can move sharply when heat over South Korea intensifies.[17][18] Against that backdrop, a current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES looks more like a view that the eventual published high will fail to clear the market’s target range, rather than a statement that Busan cannot be hot in August; the city’s long-run August record highs and climatology show that very warm outcomes are plausible even if they are not routine.[4][19]

From a market-access angle, the regulatory frame matters. Under Germany’s GlüStV regime, prediction markets can face strict gambling classification and licensing constraints, so availability to German users may be limited or geo-blocked depending on the operator’s structure. In the US, the CFTC has broad reach over event-based derivatives and can scrutinise contracts that resemble futures on outcomes, including weather-linked markets. If this venue advertises “no-KYC up to $1,500”, that usually means smaller participation can occur without full identity verification, but it does not remove legal, platform, or withdrawal checks for all users, and it may still be unavailable in certain jurisdictions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Busan on August 1? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

How are winnings taxed?

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Can I trade anonymously?

Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legit stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.

What happens during a tax audit?

You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legit exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).

What if regulation changes?

If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legit would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.