Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data will determine 2026’s numerical rank among all recorded years, with the hottest year taking position 1. Current forecasts suggest 2026 will likely be similar to or slightly cooler than 2025, which is widely regarded as the third-warmest year since 1850, making a fourth-place finish the most probable outcome [2]. This historical framing aligns with the crowd-implied 33% probability that 2026 ranks among the top three hottest years, a threshold that would require it to surpass 2024 and 2023 despite recent cooling trends in monthly anomalies [2][4].

Traders should monitor the annual Berkeley Earth and WMO temperature reports, which typically release full-year rankings in early 2027, alongside monthly NOAA and EU Climate Service updates that track deviations from the 20th-century average [1][2][3]. A key catalyst is the June–August 2026 Northern Hemisphere summer, as sustained high anomalies during this period could push the annual average into the top three, whereas a return to 2025-like conditions would likely cement a fourth-place rank [2][9].

For accessibility on iskalshilegit.com, the platform’s “no-KYC up to $1,500” tier allows traders to enter this market without identity verification, though German GlüStV implications may restrict access for residents in certain states, and US CFTC reach remains a consideration for dollar-denominated contracts [1]. These regulatory layers do not alter the scientific resolution but define the operational boundaries for participation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

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Are prediction markets gambling?

Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).

What if regulation changes?

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