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US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac

"US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac" — odds, fees, regulatory status. Is Kalshi Legit as a Polymarket alternative.

US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 1 Winner 100% US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 2 Winner 100% US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 2 O/U 8.5 100% US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac 94% Volume: $436K Liquidity: $297K Closes: 6 Sept 2026
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US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 1 Winner100%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 2 Winner100%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 2 O/U 8.5100%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac94%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 3 Winner73%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set Handicap +/-2.571%
Completed Match50%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 36.550%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Total Sets: O/U 3.550%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 38.550%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Total Sets: O/U 4.550%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 4 Winner50%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 3 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 3 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Game Spread +/-0.550%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set Handicap +/-1.550%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 3 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 4 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 4 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 4 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 40.512%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.50%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 9.50%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 2 O/U 9.50%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 10.50%
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac Set 2 O/U 10.50%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open atp: toby samuel vs tomas machac stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Toby Samuel and Tomas Machac in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to…

Methodology

This overview of US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legit has a different geo footprint.
Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legit?
Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
How are winnings taxed?
Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
Is there a withdrawal cap?
No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
and

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