Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are effectively blocked from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, with commercial traffic reduced to near zero despite a brief reopening in April 2026. This 100-day closure marks the first operational shutdown of the strait in modern history, driven by asymmetric Iranian power using drones and missiles to keep oil prices elevated and deterrence strong[4]. The market’s 68% implied probability for a return to normal by July 31 hinges on whether the 7-day moving average of transit calls can reach 60, a level far above the current trickle of merely six vessels navigating the strait in a single 24-hour window[2].

Historical precedents show that even after a ceasefire, commercial shipping remains restricted with continued routing uncertainty, as seen in the April 2026 US-Iran agreement where traffic stayed at a trickle[2]. Similar disruptions occurred in March 2026 when eastbound passages dropped precipitously from roughly 120 to 18 ships, causing a massive spike in freight rates and surcharges of $1,500 per shipment for carriers entering the Persian Gulf[1]. Traders must monitor announcements regarding Iran’s proposed toll for passage, which faces sanctions risks for non-US entities, and the US Treasury’s clarification that payments to the Revolutionary Guards for safe passage are prohibited for U.S. persons[2].

The catalysts for a resolution include the US naval blockade declaration and President Trump’s stipulation that reopening the strait is a prerequisite for any ceasefire, alongside potential Iranian mine-laying threats that have forced rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope[3]. Regulatory frameworks such as the German GlüStV and US CFTC reach influence market accessibility, particularly the "no-KYC up to $1,500" provision that allows traders to access this specific market without identity verification, provided transaction limits are met. War risk insurance premiums have surged to over 16 times normal rates, and the estimated daily economic cost exceeds $4 billion, underscoring the urgency of a return to normal transit levels[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.