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UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)

"UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)" — odds, fees, regulatory status. Is Kalshi Legit as a Polymarket alternative.

O/U 0.5 Rounds 93% O/U 1.5 Rounds 90% O/U 2.5 Rounds 72% O/U 4.5 Rounds 72% Volume: $233K Liquidity: $314K Closes: 25 Oct 2026
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UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
93% 7% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
93% 7% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 0.5 Rounds93%
O/U 1.5 Rounds90%
O/U 2.5 Rounds72%
O/U 4.5 Rounds72%
Fight to Go the Distance?70%
O/U 3.5 Rounds68%
Fight won by decision?63%
Decision or Draw63%
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan42%
Yan to win by KO/TKO?35%
Fight won by KO/TKO?27%
Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO?27%
Dvalishvili in Round 127%
Dvalishvili in Round 227%
Dvalishvili in Round 327%
Dvalishvili in Round 427%
Dvalishvili in Round 527%
Yan in Round 127%
Yan in Round 227%
Yan in Round 327%
Yan in Round 427%
Yan in Round 527%
Ends before Round 5?23%
Ends before Round 4?17%
Fight won by submission?14%
Ends before Round 3?12%
Ends before Round 2?9%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 93% YES probability for UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card). This market will resolve to "Merab Dvalishvili" if Merab Dvalishvili is officially declared the winner of the fight against Petr Yan at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026.…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 0.5 Rounds at 93% for "UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)".

O/U 0.5 Rounds 93% Other 7%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $233K.

Methodology

This overview of UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legit?
Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
How are winnings taxed?
Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legit stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
What if regulation changes?
If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legit would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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