Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 88% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| 2H O/U 15.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| O/U 36.5 | 74% |
| Patriots O/U 14.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 72% |
| Seahawks O/U 18.5 | 71% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 69% |
| O/U 38.5 | 67% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| O/U 40.5 | 63% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| Patriots O/U 17.5 | 61% |
| O/U 41.5 | 60% |
| Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| Seahawks O/U 21.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 57% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 9.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 42.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Seahawks Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| O/U 43.5 | 54% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Seahawks: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 11.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| O/U 46.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Seahawks O/U 24.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| O/U 47.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2H Moneyline | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Patriots vs. Seahawks | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 36% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 11.5 | 36% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson: Anytime Touchdown | 36% |
| A.J. Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| Seahawks O/U 27.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Anytime Touchdown | 35% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| O/U 50.5 | 32% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| Seahawks O/U 30.5 | 29% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 7-13 | 27% |
| O/U 52.5 | 26% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 14-20 | 24% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 21+ | 24% |
| Patriots vs. Seahawks: Total Defensive/Special Teams TDs O/U 0.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 23% |
| Jadarian Price: Anytime Touchdown | 23% |
| O/U 54.5 | 22% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 21% |
| George Holani: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 19% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 1-6 | 19% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 18% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 16% |
| Cooper Kupp: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| AJ Barner: Anytime Touchdown | 15% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| Rashid Shaheed: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| Hunter Henry: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 14% |
| O/U 60.5 | 13% |
| O/U 62.5 | 10% |
| O/U 64.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2+ TD | 9% |
| Jadarian Price 2+ TD | 8% |
| TreVeyon Henderson: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson 2+ TD | 6% |
| A.J. Brown 2+ TD | 6% |
| Cooper Kupp 2+ TD | 5% |
| George Holani 2+ TD | 5% |
| Rashid Shaheed 2+ TD | 3% |
| AJ Barner 2+ TD | 3% |
| Romeo Doubs 2+ TD | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
| TreVeyon Henderson 2+ TD | 2% |
Market context
Patriots vs. Seahawks. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 38% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-10T00:20:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $131K.
Methodology
This overview of Patriots vs. Seahawks reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legit has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legit?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legit exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
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