Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
67% | 33% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
67% | 33% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 67% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 37% |
| New York Yankees | 20% |
| San Diego Padres | 19% |
| Atlanta Braves | 18% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 17% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 11% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 8% |
| Chicago Cubs | 6% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 5% |
| Texas Rangers | 5% |
| Chicago White Sox | 4% |
| Miami Marlins | 4% |
| Seattle Mariners | 4% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 3% |
| Houston Astros | 3% |
| Minnesota Twins | 3% |
| Washington Nationals | 3% |
| Boston Red Sox | 2% |
| San Francisco Giants | 2% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1% |
| Detroit Tigers | 1% |
| Kansas City Royals | 1% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1% |
| New York Mets | 1% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 0% |
| Athletics | 0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mlb: team to win 100+ games stands at 67% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any po…
Methodology
This overview of MLB: Team to win 100+ games reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legit exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legit would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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