New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is an MLB game tonight between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, starting at 7:10PM ET, where the market resolves to the Yankees if they win and to the Red Sox if they win, with postponed games remaining open until completion. The current crowd-implied probability of 56% YES for the Yankees aligns with traditional moneyline odds showing the Yankees at -120 and a run line requiring a two-run margin to cover, reflecting their historical dominance in this rivalry over the last decade where they won 68% of head-to-head matchups, a comparable case that frames how to read the current probability as a moderate lean rather than a certainty[2][5].

Traders should watch for in-game catalysts including starting pitcher performance, early injury announcements, and weather dependencies that could shift run totals, as the combined score is set at 8 with over favoured by 53% of consensus bettors[2][7]. Recent news from ESPN notes the Red Sox are beginning a four-game home series against the Yankees, with Spencer Horwitz placed on the 10-day injured list, a dependency that may impact Boston's offensive output and should be monitored for line movements[4]. From a regulatory angle, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define the market's legal boundaries, while the 'no-KYC up to $1,500' threshold enhances accessibility for retail participants in this specific market without triggering full identity verification, provided transactions remain within the stipulated limit and comply with local tax reporting requirements.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.