UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Theodor Berggren steps into the welterweight octagon tonight as a late replacement against Daniil Donchenko at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres in Baku, with the bout scheduled for 27 June 2026. Berggren, a late entry for Andreas Gustafsson, faces Donchenko, a colourful TUF winner with a 14–2 record, while both fighters stand at 5'11" and 170 lbs[3]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for Berggren reflects a sharp market consensus that Donchenko, favoured to win by TKO, holds a decisive edge in this preliminary contest[1].

Historical precedents in UFC prelims show that late replacements often struggle against established TUF alumni, particularly when the opponent boasts a higher win rate and TKO finish capability[8]. In comparable welterweight matchups, fighters entering as substitutes without prior fight-week preparation have rarely overturned odds against seasoned opponents, a pattern that aligns with the current 0% probability for Berggren[1]. This trend underscores how market sentiment weighs experience and preparation over name recognition in high-stakes preliminary bouts.

Traders should monitor official UFC announcements regarding fight-night changes, medical suspensions, or weight-cut dependencies that could alter the outcome before the settlement window closes on 28 June 2026[7]. Recent coverage from Sherdog highlights Donchenko’s return to the Octagon and his intent to secure a third consecutive win, reinforcing his status as the likely victor[8]. For market accessibility, German GlüStV regulations and US CFTC reach define compliance boundaries, while the 'no-KYC up to $1,500' threshold allows traders to engage without identity verification, enhancing liquidity for this specific event[5]. These regulatory frameworks ensure transparency while maintaining broad participation under current legal standards.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.