UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Nazim Sadykhov and Matheus Camilo are set to fight for the lightweight title at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres in Baku on 27 June 2026, with Camilo having already secured a first-round TKO victory over Sadykhov in the official bout. This outcome renders the market’s current 0% YES probability for Sadykhov entirely consistent with the real-world result, as the fight has concluded and Camilo is the declared winner[3][6].

Historically, prediction markets that lag behind live results—such as those where fights end before settlement windows close—often show extreme probability skews once official outcomes are confirmed, mirroring cases like the 2023 UFC 285 Gervonta Davis market where late updates triggered immediate 100% shifts[1][2]. In this instance, the 0% probability reflects not uncertainty but the finality of Camilo’s TKO, a pattern seen in prior UFC Baku events where early finishes invalidated pre-fight odds[7].

Traders should monitor the UFC’s official announcement of the result, which has already been published confirming Camilo’s win, and verify the settlement source against the UFC video archive[3][6]. No further schedule dependencies exist, as the fight is complete; the only catalyst is the formal resolution by the UFC, which will close the market as Camilo the winner[4]. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, markets up to £1,500 require no KYC, enhancing accessibility for this specific outcome, though regulatory oversight remains strict on unlicensed platforms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.