Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Mjallby AIF O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Mjallby AIF O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Mjallby AIF O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Mjallby AIF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Mjallby AIF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Mjallby AIF (-1.5) | 0% |
| IK Sirius (-1.5) | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF (-2.5) | 0% |
| IK Sirius (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Mjallby AIF will face IK Sirius in the Swedish Allsvenskan on 15 August 2026 at 9:00 AM ET. The fixture sits in the latter stages of the domestic season, with both clubs competing for mid-table positioning and European qualification spots. Allsvenskan matches attract modest but consistent trading volumes on derivatives platforms, particularly when teams have clear injury or form narratives entering the weekend.
The 0% probability reading reflects either minimal initial liquidity or a technical settlement condition that has not yet activated trading interest. Historical Allsvenskan fixtures on prediction markets show that crowd probabilities remain volatile until 48 hours before kickoff, when team news and weather conditions crystallise. Comparable Swedish league markets have seen 15–25 percentage point swings following official injury announcements or managerial statements mid-week.
Traders should monitor Mjallby and Sirius squad updates through official club channels and Allsvenskan's fixture schedule. Under German GlüStV regulations, this market may be accessible to EU-based participants only if the platform holds appropriate licensing; US CFTC oversight applies if the platform operates derivatives contracts with US persons. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold—where applicable—typically permits retail participation without full identity verification, though settlement eligibility and withdrawal limits remain subject to individual platform terms and jurisdictional compliance frameworks. Regulatory status should be confirmed before entry, as Allsvenskan markets sit outside major betting jurisdictions.
Methodology
This overview of Mjallby AIF vs. IK Sirius - More Markets reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legit has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legit stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legit would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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