Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the Major League Baseball game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets, scheduled for 7:10pm ET on 26 June at Citi Field in Flushing, New York. This contest determines the winner of the matchup, with the market resolving to the Phillies if they secure the victory.

Historical precedents for similar high-confidence sports markets show that 100% crowd-implied probabilities often reflect overwhelming recent dominance rather than absolute certainty. The Phillies recently scored eight runs against the Nationals on 25 June and held a commanding 15-3 lead in a prior highlight, suggesting formidable offensive momentum[1]. Against the spread as favourites, the Phillies are 6-4 in their last ten games, indicating a strong but not flawless track record that traders should weigh against the current certainty[2].

Traders must monitor the official final statistics recognised by the league for resolution, as any postponement extends the settlement window until completion[3]. Key catalysts include the live score updates and expert picks from CBS Sports, which track real-time performance shifts that could alter the outcome[7]. The regulatory landscape adds another layer: German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define the market’s legal boundaries, while the ‘no-KYC up to $1,500’ provision significantly enhances accessibility for participants who wish to engage without identity verification, provided they stay within this threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.