Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 78% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 65% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 64% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Álex Arce: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Álex Arce: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Gatito Fernández: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Gatito Fernández: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Gatito Fernández: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Gatito Fernández: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 43% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Álex Arce: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Álex Arce: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Álex Arce: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Álex Arce: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Álex Arce: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Álex Arce: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Álex Arce: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 89% chance of paraguay vs. france - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Paraguay and France, scheduled for July 4 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Paraguay vs. France - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legit has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legit would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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