Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 85% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 64% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 60% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Raúl Rangel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Raúl Rangel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Raúl Rangel: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Raúl Rangel: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 34% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target | 15% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Armando González: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Armando González: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Mexico vs. England - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 93%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and England, scheduled for July 5 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Mexico vs. England - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legit?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legit exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legit would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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