Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Amaru Gaming (-1.5) vs Execration (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Execration’s Bo3 against Amaru Gaming is already under way in the Games of the Future Group A, so the market is being read off live tournament execution rather than a pre-match assumption. The crowd has priced **100% YES**, which is consistent with a fixture that appears to have started on schedule and is sitting at 0–0 in live trackers; once play begins, the main settlement risk usually shifts from who is favoured to whether the series finishes cleanly inside the market’s deadline window.[1][3][5]
The historical frame is thin at the head-to-head level: Strafe notes this is the first time Execration and Amaru Gaming have met, so traders have leaned on broader team form and ranking proxies instead of direct matchup evidence.[3] Those proxies point to a relatively modest edge for Execration, with recent ranking snapshots placing them ahead of Amaru Gaming and both sides showing mixed recent results rather than dominant form.[3][7] That matters for reading a 100% market: in esports, a perfect implied probability often reflects near-certainty that the match will conclude and be settled, not that one team is unbeatable.
For accessibility, the key regulatory point is that a prediction market’s availability can differ by jurisdiction: under Germany’s GlüStV framework, online betting-style products can trigger licensing and marketing restrictions, while the US CFTC can reach certain event-contract activity involving US persons or US-facing platforms.[6] If a venue advertises “no-KYC up to $1,500”, that generally means small withdrawals or cumulative activity below that threshold may be processed with lighter identity checks, improving access for low-stakes users but not removing geofencing, source-of-funds checks, or regulatory reporting obligations where they apply.[6] Traders should watch official bracket updates, any referee or platform notices about delays, and whether the series remains live and completed before the settlement window closes.
Methodology
This overview of Dota 2: Execration vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legit has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legit?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legit would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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