Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1. FC Cologne (-1.5) | 97% |
| O/U 1.5 | 94% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 91% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 90% |
| 1. FC Cologne O/U 0.5 | 88% |
| 1. FC Cologne O/U 1.5 | 88% |
| 1. FC Cologne O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Real Sociedad San Sebastian O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Real Sociedad San Sebastian O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 10% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 10% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Real Sociedad San Sebastian 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 10% |
| Real Sociedad San Sebastian 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Real Sociedad San Sebastian 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 10% |
| Real Sociedad San Sebastian 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Real Sociedad San Sebastian (-1.5) | 8% |
| O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 2% |
| Real Sociedad San Sebastian (-2.5) | 1% |
| Real Sociedad San Sebastian O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| 1. FC Cologne (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
1. FC Köln and Real Sociedad are set for a club friendly on 7 August, with the “more markets” contract covering any additional wager lines attached to the match rather than the result itself. The current 97% crowd-implied “yes” looks consistent with a fixture that has already been broadly listed across prediction venues, with market participants assuming extra derivatives will be available once the match is operationally confirmed. [2][4]
Comparable pricing for the underlying game has treated Real Sociedad as a narrow favourite, but not an overwhelming one: one market listed Köln around 99¢ versus Real Sociedad at 1¢, while another set of pre-match models placed the away side only modestly ahead and flagged friendly-match rotation as a major source of variance. That is the key reading point for this market: if the fixture itself is settled and additional market types are offered, a high “yes” probability is mainly a statement about standard exchange-style product expansion, not about one team’s strength. [2][3][5]
For accessibility, the main regulatory overlay is the split between Germany and the US. Germany’s GlüStV framework is designed to keep online gambling tightly controlled, so any Germany-facing access or promotion can be constrained by licensing and consumer-protection rules, while US-facing prediction-market activity remains within the CFTC’s potential reach if the contract is offered to US users. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to trade up to that cumulative threshold without full identity verification, which lowers onboarding friction and makes a yes-listed market like this easier to reach for casual participants before any larger withdrawal or volume checks apply.
Methodology
This overview of 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - More Markets reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legit stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legit exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legit would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
Trade 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - More… on Is Kalshi Legit
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →