Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 71% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 65% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 36.5 | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-6.5 | 44% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 38.5 | 42% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 39% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 40.5 | 34% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 Winner | 31% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 31% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 Winner | 30% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 Winner | 29% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz | 17% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 71% YES probability for US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz. This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if …
Methodology
This overview of US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legit has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legit stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legit would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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