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US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo

"US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo" — odds, fees, regulatory status. Is Kalshi Legit as a Polymarket alternative.

US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set Handicap +/-1.5 85% US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set Handicap +/-2.5 65% US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 8.5 57% Completed Match 50% Volume: $147K Liquidity: $211K Closes: 6 Sept 2026
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US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
85% 15% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
85% 15% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set Handicap +/-1.585%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set Handicap +/-2.565%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 8.557%
Completed Match50%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Match O/U 36.550%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 2 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Match O/U 38.550%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 2 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Match O/U 40.550%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 4 Winner50%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 2 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 3 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 3 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 3 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 4 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 4 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 4 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Game Spread +/-8.548%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Total Sets: O/U 3.535%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 10.533%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 3 Winner21%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 1 Winner17%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 2 Winner17%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo Total Sets: O/U 4.512%
US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo8%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open atp: filip misolic vs francisco cerundolo stands at 85% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Filip Misolic and Francisco Cerundolo in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will r…

Methodology

This overview of US Open ATP: Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legit has a different geo footprint.
Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legit?
Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legit stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
What happens during a tax audit?
You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legit exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
Is there a withdrawal cap?
No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
and

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