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Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

"Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar" — odds, fees, regulatory status. Is Kalshi Legit as a Polymarket alternative.

Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 8.5 100% Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 Winner 100% Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 Winner 100% Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 8.5 100% Volume: $837K Liquidity: $713K Closes: 6 Jul 2026
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Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 8.5100%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 Winner100%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 Winner100%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 8.5100%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 9.5100%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 4 O/U 10.558%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Total Sets: O/U 3.551%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Total Sets: O/U 4.551%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 4 O/U 8.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 40.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 36.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 38.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set Handicap +/-1.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set Handicap +/-2.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 4 Winner50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 4 O/U 9.534%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 10.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 3 O/U 8.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 3 O/U 9.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 3 O/U 10.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 9.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar0%
Completed Match0%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 10.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 3 Winner0%

Market context

The Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'C…

Methodology

This overview of Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legit has a different geo footprint.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legit stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
What happens during a tax audit?
You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legit exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
Is there a withdrawal cap?
No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
and

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Related Topics

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