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PGA Tour: 3M Open Winner

"PGA Tour: 3M Open Winner" on Polymarket, Kalshi and Is Kalshi Legit — what traders need to know about platform choice, KYC and tax law.

Jackson Koivun 55% Ben Kohles 11% Emiliano Grillo 10% Scottie Scheffler 7% Volume: $176K Liquidity: $813K Closes: 26 Jul 2026
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PGA Tour: 3M Open Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
55% 45% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
55% 45% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Jackson Koivun55%
Ben Kohles11%
Emiliano Grillo10%
Scottie Scheffler7%
Michael Brennan6%
Chandler Phillips3%
Michael Kim2%
Billy Horschel2%
Denny McCarthy2%
Kurt Kitayama1%
Hideki Matsuyama1%
Gary Woodland1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout1%
Davis Thompson1%
Kevin Yu1%
Brian Harman1%
Lee Hodges1%
Ze-Cheng Dou1%
Seamus Power1%
Austin Smotherman1%
Kevin Roy1%
Maverick McNealy0%
Keith Mitchell0%
Jake Knapp0%
Tom Kim0%
Pierceson Coody0%
Jackson Suber0%
Max Homa0%
Corey Conners0%
Jordan L. Smith0%
Doug Ghim0%
Sung-Jae Im0%
Benjamin James0%
Sam Stevens0%
Tony Finau0%
Sudarshan Yellamaraju0%
Johnny Keefer0%
Mac Meissner0%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen0%
Jason Day0%
Max Greyserman0%
William Mouw0%
Aldrich Potgieter0%
Stephan Jaeger0%
Taylor Pendrith0%
Casey Jarvis0%
Ricky Castillo0%
Steven Fisk0%
Beau Hossler0%
Mackenzie Hughes0%
John Parry0%
Taylor Moore0%
Preston Stout0%
Max McGreevy0%
Lucas Glover0%
Hao-Tong Li0%
Thorbjorn Olesen0%
Andrew Putnam0%
Rico Hoey0%
Zach Bauchou0%
Keita Nakajima0%
Jesper Svensson0%
Patrick Rodgers0%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart0%
Matt Kuchar0%
Zac Blair0%
Ryder Cowan0%
Patrick Fishburn0%
Takumi Kanaya0%
Chris Kirk0%
A.J. Ewart0%
Kristoffer Ventura0%
Garrick Higgo0%
Austin Eckroat0%
Gordon Sargent0%
Tom Hoge0%
Chad Ramey0%
Erik Van Rooyen0%
Matthieu Pavon0%
Pontus Nyholm0%
Nick Dunlap0%
Karl Vilips0%
Neal Shipley0%
Luke Clanton0%
Joel Dahmen0%
David Skinns0%
Brandt Snedeker0%
Hayden Springer0%
Trace Crowe0%
David Lipsky0%
Aaron Wise0%
S.Y. Noh0%
Harry Higgs0%
Mark Hubbard0%
Luke List0%
Cameron Champ0%
Vince Whaley0%
Lanto Griffin0%
Adam Hadwin0%
Jimmy Stanger0%
Player 00%
Player 10%
Player 20%
Player 30%
Player 40%
Player 50%
Player 60%
Player 70%
Player 80%
Player 90%
Player 100%
Player 110%
Player 120%
Player 130%
Player 140%
Player 150%
Player 160%
Player 170%
Player 180%
Player 190%
Other0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pga tour: 3m open winner stands at 55% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 3M Open tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the 3M Open tournament based on …

Methodology

This overview of PGA Tour: 3M Open Winner reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legit has a different geo footprint.
Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legit?
Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legit stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
What happens during a tax audit?
You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legit exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
and

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