Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 93% |
| Game 1 Winner | 86% |
| Game 2 Winner | 86% |
| Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5) | 75% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 57% |
| Any Player Rampage | 55% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 53% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 53% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 41% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 40% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 40% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 37% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 37% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 32% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 32% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 24% |
| Any Player Rampage | 12% |
| Any Player Rampage | 12% |
Market context
The Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage prediction market currently prices this outcome at 93% YES. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between TEAM VISION and Team Resilience in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 12 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This overview of Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legit?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legit stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legit would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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