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Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic

"Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic" — odds, fees, regulatory status. Is Kalshi Legit as a Polymarket alternative.

Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Set 1 O/U 8.5 81% Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Match O/U 23.5 70% Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic 60% Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Set 1 Winner 54% Volume: $141K Liquidity: $366K Closes: 20 Aug 2026
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Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
81% 19% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
81% 19% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Set 1 O/U 8.581%
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Match O/U 23.570%
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic60%
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Set 1 Winner54%
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Match O/U 22.553%
Completed Match50%
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Match O/U 21.550%
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Set 2 Winner50%
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Set 2 O/U 8.550%
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Set 2 O/U 9.550%
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Set 1 O/U 9.550%
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Set 2 O/U 10.550%
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Total Sets: O/U 2.543%
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Set 1 O/U 10.532%
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic Set Handicap +/-1.522%

Market context

The Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic prediction market currently prices this outcome at 81% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Marin Cilic in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Danie…

Methodology

This overview of Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

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