Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| March 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| September 30, 2026 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The underlying event is whether Solana’s price on Binance, measured by one-minute candle highs between 16 December 2025 and 2027, exceeds its all-time high of £234.33 (recorded 19 January 2025). With current crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, the market treats this outcome as virtually impossible under present conditions.
Historical precedents show that crypto all-time highs are rarely broken without major catalysts; Bitcoin’s 2021 peak took nearly a decade to surpass, and Ethereum’s 2021 record remained unbroken until mid-2024. Solana’s current price sits around £57.67, roughly 24% of its peak, and has traded lower than prior highs since early 2025[4][5]. The 0% probability reflects this sustained underperformance and lack of imminent breakout signals.
Traders should monitor regulatory developments, including Germany’s GlüStV implementation affecting crypto KYC thresholds, and US CFTC actions on digital asset oversight. A key catalyst is the “no-KYC up to $1,500” rule, which allows retail access to Solana trading without identity verification, boosting liquidity for smaller participants[5]. Recent news from Binance.US confirms continued spot trading volume growth, though volatility remains high[2]. Any shift in regulatory stance or institutional adoption could alter the probability trajectory before the settlement window closes.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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