Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently unable to pass the Strait of Hormuz in meaningful numbers, with commercial traffic reduced to a near-trickle following Iran’s reversal of a brief reopening in April 2026. Despite a US-Iran ceasefire on 8 April, the Joint Maritime Information Centre confirms transits remain constrained, with only six vessels navigating the strait in the last 24 hours as of late April [2]. This marks the first operational closure of this critical chokepoint in modern history, now lasting 100 days and threatening 21% of global oil supply [4][5].

Historical precedents suggest that even after ceasefires, routing uncertainty and sanctions risks—such as those over Iranian tolls for passage—can suppress traffic for months. The US Treasury has clarified that payments to Iran or the Revolutionary Guards for safe passage are prohibited for US persons and U.S.-owned foreign entities, creating a de facto barrier even for non-US firms [2]. Comparable cases show that war risk insurance premiums can exceed 16 times normal rates, and rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope adds up to 14 extra transit days, further delaying recovery [5].

Traders should monitor announcements from the US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Centre, Iranian proposals for toll implementation, and any shifts in war risk cover expiry. A recent Reuters report notes Iranian officials have suggested tolls, yet shipping companies face sanctions for paying them, creating a regulatory deadlock that may persist through December [2]. The market’s 89% YES probability implies confidence in a rebound, but dependencies include IMF Portwatch’s ability to capture AIS-off transits and the resolution of geopolitical friction before the settlement window closes in 2026.

For UK and EU traders, German GlüStV implications may limit access to unregulated platforms, while US CFTC reach could restrict participation for American entities. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” feature enhances accessibility for smaller traders but does not override jurisdictional bans. This market remains accessible only to those outside sanctioned jurisdictions, with settlement tied strictly to IMF Portwatch’s published 7-day moving average of arrivals [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.