Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the permanent removal of a sitting head of government from office before the end of 2026, excluding any leader who remains in a caretaker or interim capacity. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a "YES" outcome, reflecting the market’s view that no listed individual will be permanently ousted before the settlement window closes.

Historically, comparable cases such as the recent resignation of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer illustrate how leadership changes often do not equate to permanent removal from office. Starmer announced his resignation but will remain caretaker prime minister until a successor is chosen, meaning he has not ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market[1][4]. Similarly, French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s interim role was explicitly excluded from resolution criteria, reinforcing that temporary or caretaker status does not trigger a "YES"[2]. These precedents frame the current 0% probability as a rational assessment of the strict resolution conditions.

Traders should monitor formal announcements of permanent removal, scheduled election outcomes that result in a leader’s definitive exit, and any dependencies such as parliamentary votes that could force a leader’s resignation. Recent reporting from Sky News indicates that Andy Burnham could be announced as Labour leader by 17 July, but his tenure’s permanence remains contingent on future elections, with the next UK general election mandated no later than August 2029[9][5]. In regulatory terms, this market operates under German GlüStV implications for gambling oversight and US CFTC reach for derivatives, while the "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold enhances accessibility for retail participants without requiring identity verification, provided they stay within the limit.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.