MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 Major League Baseball regular season will determine which player steals the most bases, with the market currently implying an 8% chance of a specific outcome resolving as "YES". This contest hinges on a single statistical leader, where ties are broken by caught stealings, then on-base percentage, creating a narrow margin for victory that demands precise tracking of player performance through September 28, 2026.

Historical precedents show that stolen base leaders often emerge from mid-season surges rather than consistent early pacing, as seen when Bobby Witt Jr. and Nasim Nuñez traded the top spot in the first half of 2026, with Nuñez holding 31 steals against Witt’s 28[3]. Past seasons reveal that projections frequently overestimate totals, as Elly De La Cruz and Chandler Simpson were projected for 41 steals each, yet actual leaders rarely exceed 35 in recent years, suggesting the current 8% probability may reflect an overvalued expectation of a breakout performance[5].

Traders should monitor the mid-July All-Star break rosters and late-August injury reports, as these often dictate the final stretch pace for speed specialists. Recent FantasyPros projections highlight Chandler Simpson and Elly De La Cruz as primary contenders, but their accessibility depends on regulatory frameworks like the German GlüStV and US CFTC reach, which govern whether "no-KYC up to $1,500" applies to this market, effectively limiting participation for users in jurisdictions with strict identity verification mandates[5]. Announcements regarding team lineup changes for September will be critical, as a single missed game can alter the final tally significantly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track MLB: Stolen Bases Leader on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.