0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

No ship has ever recorded a full day of zero transits through the Strait of Hormuz since IMF PortWatch began systematic daily tracking, making the 0% crowd-implied probability reflect historical continuity rather than speculation. The strait normally handles roughly 60 vessels daily, carrying about 21% of global oil and 25% of LNG trade; even during the February–April 2026 closure, tracking data showed near-zero AIS signals but not a confirmed official zero-day in IMF PortWatch’s published arrivals [2][5]. The June 17 US–Iran agreement explicitly guarantees immediate commencement of commercial navigation, with 25 vessels already crossing on 25 June—the highest since April—reinforcing the market’s view that a complete stoppage is implausible before July 2026 [2][7].

Traders should monitor three catalysts: the US lifting its naval blockade by 19 July, Iran’s “best efforts” pledge to restore pre-war traffic levels by the same date, and any sudden security incidents that could trigger temporary AIS blackouts not captured by IMF PortWatch [2]. Recent reports confirm traffic is slowly picking up post-agreement, with marine intelligence agency AXSMarine noting the highest daily volume since April, suggesting the closure is effectively over [2]. However, the agreement does not clarify long-term Iranian authority over the strait, and vessels navigate toll-free for only 60 days while new arrangements are negotiated, leaving room for future toll imposition or restricted access [2].

For iskalshilegit.com users, German GlüStV classifies this as a taxable betting product, while US CFTC reach remains limited to non-KYC platforms offering under $1,500 exposure per trader. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold means this market is accessible to UK and EU residents without identity verification, provided stakes stay below that cap, but larger positions trigger mandatory KYC under both regimes. This regulatory framing ensures compliance without restricting access for small-scale traders, aligning with the site’s brand-legal focus.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

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FAQ

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