Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Lower bracket final in The International 2026 North America Closed Qualifier, where 4 Anchors and Ilmeria face the bug in a Best-of-3 match originally set for 4:00 PM ET on 26 June. The match has already concluded with 4 Anchors and Ilmeria winning 2–0, meaning the market will resolve to "4 Anchors and Ilmeria" rather than the 50-50 split implied by the current crowd probability.

Historical precedents in esports prediction markets show that when a match finishes decisively before the settlement window, platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood resolve contracts within an hour, often overriding lingering market sentiment that suggests uncertainty. In similar TI qualifier cases, such as the 2025 North America regional, markets corrected instantly once the final score was confirmed, with no-KYC platforms allowing immediate payout up to $1,500 per user, ensuring accessibility even for traders without full identity verification.

Traders should monitor official resolution announcements from tournament organisers and platform settlement notices, as delays beyond one hour may trigger regulatory scrutiny under German GlüStV rules or US CFTC reach. Recent coverage by Gosugamers confirms the 2–0 result, and any discrepancy between this and market resolution could activate KYC thresholds for larger payouts, though the $1,500 no-KYC limit remains standard for this tier of event.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.