Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 75% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4? | 74% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 70% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 61% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? | 61% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 61% |
| Match Winner | 59% |
| Game 1 Winner | 56% |
| Game 2 Winner | 56% |
| Game 3 Winner | 56% |
| Game 4 Winner | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 46% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) | 40% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 40% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 40% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 37% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 31% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 30% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 30% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA (+2.5) | 18% |
Market context
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 75%. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between T1 and Dplus KIA in the LCK Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "T1" if …
Methodology
This overview of LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Playoffs reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legit stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legit exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legit would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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