Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legit) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Execration (+1.5) | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 75% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 74% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 26% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 25% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 25% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Yellow Submarine face Execration in a best-of-three Group A Dota 2 match at the Games of the Future, with multiple fixtures services listing the scheduled start at 05:00 UTC on 31 July 2026. Live and fixture pages also show the game as underway or completed, which means the market should be read against near-term match-state updates rather than as a long-dated event.[1][4][6][10][14]
The crowd-implied 100% YES price reflects a strong expectation that the match will produce a clear winner, but comparable esports markets can still move on late schedule changes, technical pauses, or a walkover if the series is not finished. That matters because the settlement rules here turn cancellation, a tie, or an unresolved delay beyond seven days into 50-50, so the main risk is not just who wins but whether the series is completed cleanly within the window.[1][4][19]
For accessibility, the key regulatory point is that German GlüStV rules can materially affect whether a prediction market is offered to users in Germany, while US-facing access remains shaped by the reach of CFTC oversight on event-based contracts. If this venue advertises no-KYC up to $1,500, that usually means a small account can access the market with lighter identity checks, but only within the operator’s own limits and applicable jurisdictional screening, so availability can still change by country, payment rail, or account history.[1][19][20]
Methodology
This overview of Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legit has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legit stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legit exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legit would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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