What price will Bitcoin hit on June 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event determining this market is the exact price of one Bitcoin in US dollars at the moment the settlement window closes on 27 June 2026. Current crowd-implied probability of zero per cent for the "YES" outcome suggests traders believe the price will not breach the specific threshold set for that binary result, likely due to prevailing bearish sentiment and an Extreme Fear reading on the market index[1].

Historical precedents frame this low probability by highlighting Bitcoin's extreme volatility and its recent retreat from the all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025[2]. While some models project prices exceeding $700,000 by 2030, conservative estimates remain closer to $300,000, and the asset has already dropped roughly $39,000 compared to one year ago[2]. Recent data indicates the price will not drop lower than $59,901 in June 2026, with a potential increase to $62,986, yet the Fear & Greed Index currently displays a score of 13, signalling extreme caution among investors[1].

Traders should monitor upcoming regulatory announcements, specifically the implications of Germany's GlüStV on crypto taxation and the US CFTC's expanding reach over digital asset derivatives, as these could trigger immediate price shifts. The concept of "no-KYC up to $1,500" remains a critical accessibility factor for this market, allowing retail participants to engage without identity verification, though this threshold may face tightening under new compliance schedules. A daily close below the $70,000 support band would fundamentally alter the short-term structure and open a flush towards $62,000, a level that recent technical indicators are watching closely[5]. Institutional flows must step back in to absorb the selling pressure that has been building, as failure to do so could cement the current low probability outlook for the remainder of the month[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.